Heat is a neglected and poorly understood public health threat. Heat worsens underlying conditions, like high blood pressure and asthma, and can be especially hard on people with lung problems. Left unchecked*Emissions and socioeconomic assumptions are based on a continuation of past trends, for more info visit the methodology., by the end of the century, climate change-driven heatwaves could become a leading cause of death.

Causes of death, per 100,000 people
Heart disease
0
Stroke
0
Climate change
0
Lung, liver, breast cancer
0
Lower respiratory infections
0
Tuberculosis, HIV, vector-borne disease
0
Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias
0
Diabetes
0
Year
2020
Change in deaths
per 100,000 people
0
0
+ 0
Causes of death
per 100,000 people
Climate change
0
Heart disease
126
Stroke
77
Lung, liver, breast cancer
42
Lower respiratory infections
40
Tuberculosis, HIV, vector-borne disease
39
Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias
27
Diabetes
21
Change in average temperature
0.00 °C

Not everyone is impacted equally

0
0
change in 2099 death rate
0
0
Bubble size represents projected population of each country in 2099

By the end of the century, climate change’s impact on death rates will vary significantly between countries.

By the end of the century, climate change’s impact on death rates will vary significantly between countries.

As the intensity and frequency of heatwaves increase, more people will die in countries home to most of the world’s population. The decline in death rates in colder countries, where warming leads to net health gains, is eclipsed by the spike in death rates in warmer countries.

As the intensity and frequency of heatwaves increase, more people will die in countries home to most of the world’s population. The decline in death rates in colder countries, where warming leads to net health gains, is eclipsed by the spike in death rates in warmer countries.

As the world grows both richer and hotter, a growing share of the population is likely to have the resources, like air conditioning, to reduce the health threat. But income growth alone will not be enough to protect the most vulnerable populations.

As the world grows both richer and hotter, a growing share of the population is likely to have the resources, like air conditioning, to reduce the health threat. But income growth alone will not be enough to protect the most vulnerable populations.

And adaptation comes at a cost. Roughly 4% of the global economic output in 2100 will need to be spent to prevent even more deaths.

And adaptation comes at a cost. Roughly 4% of the global economic output in 2100 will need to be spent to prevent even more deaths.

But this outcome isn’t predetermined — reducing emissions today will protect public health in the future.

Each additional ton of carbon released into the atmosphere impacts global temperatures and has a measurable cost to society. This means every ton of carbon pollution we can avoid now will save lives in the years to come.

See how reducing emissions in your community improves public health globally.

Lives Saved Calculator

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The Climate Impact Lab’s team of economists, climate scientists, data engineers, and risk analysts is building the world’s most comprehensive body of research quantifying the impacts of climate change sector-by-sector, community-by-community around the world.

This research will allow decision makers in the public and private sectors to understand the risks climate change presents and mitigate those risks through smarter investments and public policy. The research will also produce the world’s first empirically derived estimate of the social cost of carbon — the cost to society from each ton of carbon dioxide emitted.

Learn more about this research and our methodology.